Unpacking the Guffey UFO Skywatch

Recently, our team of UFO investigators converged on the exceptionally dark skies of Guffey, Colorado, for a comprehensive skywatch party. In addition to networking with each other, our objective was to observe and document aerial phenomena with specialized equipment. What we caught on video over a brief ten-minute period provided significant insights into the behavior of low Earth orbit satellites, particularly Starlink constellations.

Smart investigators need to have a good understanding of why people sometimes report these satellites as UFOs, and conversely, why possibly real anomalous objects can easily be dismissed as "just a satellite". We're on a mission to change this, using shoestring-budget technology, and smartphone cameras that are in just about everyone's pocket!

Documenting the Celestial Traffic

We set up our low-light Sony A7Sii camera, aimed west towards Mars and the constellation Gemini. Within the initial ten minutes of recording, we documented over fifty distinct satellite passes. Most of these satellites were obviously loosely following each other as part of a Starlink train that had been launched a few days earlier.

Starlinks start out with all the satellites (anywhere from 20 to about 60 of them!) clustered together in a tight, single-file "train" as they cross the night sky. Over the space of a few nights after their initial launch, these satellites drift further and further apart as their ion thrusters slowly cause them to leave their LEO (low earth orbit) at very roughly 200 miles altitude and move up to their working orbit at more like 340 miles altitude. The train we caught on video had already moved up to about 250 miles altitude, and they were significantly spaced out about 12 seconds in time from each other.

Calculating Starlink Altitude

One particularly faint satellite (about one minute into the video) moved parallel to, but slower than, one of the Starlink satellites. This provided a great opportunity to measure its orbital altitude using software I've developed recently. The basic idea is that a orbital altitude goes up, the angular velocity, or how fast a satellite appears to glide across the sky, goes down.

To see the complete Guffey Skywatch video follow this link.

That sounds easy enough, but the calculations to determine orbital altitude involve a lot of complications. For example, a satellite near the horizon will have a slower apparent motion than one overhead. And the direction of motion is important too. If moving left to right or right to left, the angular velocity is greater than if it is moving towards or away from you at a constant altitude above the earth.

The faint arrow in the video shows the faint satellite

The Stars are Great Helpers

To accurately calculate the orbital altitude of a satellite, we need its accurate azimuth and elevation angles at two points in time, a few seconds apart. Approximations won't cut it, so my software relies on accurately knowing where three nearby stars are in the sky. A powerful and free astronomy program named Stellarium lets us determine each of these star's location in the sky at the moment of the video, given the camera's location on the earth and the exact date and time. A special step in my software can then find the precise azimuth and elevation angle of the satellite, based on these nearby stars.

But Wait, There's More!

Without getting bogged down in all the complicated math details, I'll just point out that there's only one orbital altitude where everything works out for the given angular velocity of the satellite at its location and direction of motion in the sky. From experiments with the known altitudes of the ISS (International Space Station) and Tiangong (Chinese Space Station) we've been able to confirm a consistently accurate orbital altitude and velocity calculation within 2 to 3 percent.

10-second exposures of the ISS from two locations 21 miles apart show a shift in background stars

Click here to see John's other UFO-related articles.

What We Are Trying To Accomplish

It turns out that we can't actually prove orbital altitude with these calculations. Satellites look like satellites, and if we make the assumption that what we've caught on video really is a satellite, then yes, we can assume our calculations are accurate. But a bug or a drone moving in a straight line at a steady speed can also match the angular velocity of a satellite, even though its actual altitude and velocity are much less. Fortunately, there is a way to convincingly prove a calculated altitude... with two cameras!

Two Camera Analysis

We have two of the same extremely low-light Sony A7sii cameras . This makes all the difference! By filming the same satellite at the same time from locations a few miles apart, we can use stereoscopic analysis to measure the parallactic shift in the sky that is a function of altitude. In other words, with two cameras we can definitively calculate how high an object is in the sky, even if it's not moving at orbital velocity. And this becomes important when we consider if an object might be a UFO/UAP!

The two cameras at Guffey were placed roughly 200 feet apart. For satellite calculations we separate them by a few miles.

Low-light cameras are great for proactive research, but do note that the same mathematical analysis discussed here can be applied to smartphone images and videos in multi-witness cases. Getting accurate distance, size, velocity, and acceleration, beyond just approximations, is very possible as more and more cameras catch events from different directions. Security cameras, doorbell cams, dashboard cams, and above all, the phones in everyone's pocket are making this concept more and more viable today.

No-Fly Zone

No air-breathing airplane or jet, and no high altitude balloon can go higher than about 20 miles altitude. There's just not enough air. No satellite can orbit below about 100 miles, because the very thin atmosphere will cause it to de-orbit in short order. So there's a big 80-mile gap in altitude from 20 to 100 miles where the only thing that goes through there are rocks and rockets - and they don't stick around very long. If we can video an object in the No-Fly Zone, and prove its altitude with accuracy, then we've caught something very important!

Way too many possible UFOs have been dismissed by investigators over the years simply because if it looks like a satellite, and moves in a straight line at a constant velocity in the night sky, then it must be dismissed as just a satellite. We're out to challenge that assumption, with measurable facts. Our planned sky watches will attempt to catch objects in the sky where they shouldn't be!

There Is Evidence of No-Fly Zone Objects!

Historical evidence from Project Blue Book supports the existence of unexplained phenomena within this No-Fly Zone. Of the over 12,000 cases investigated by Project Blue Book, approximately 700 remain officially unidentified. In our research into these cases, we found quite a few events where radar or other military instrumentation indicated altitudes above 20 miles. This was in the days before the Sputnik launches in 1957, so these anomalies were not satellites or any known type of aircraft. This reinforces our belief that with the right instrumentation and a coordinated network, we can effectively detect objects in the No-Fly Zone.

Back to Guffey

The Guffey skywatch, while not detecting any paranormal activity, offered valuable data regarding satellite behavior and reinforced the importance of systematic observation. The night sky is alive with interesting things to look at, including the potential for catching some anomalous behavior that we can verify as beyond normal operation.

UFO-Track's Mission

The core mission of UFO-Track is to establish a network of skywatchers capable of generating verified, multi-witness, and multi-camera documentation of unidentified aerial phenomena. This network aims to move beyond anecdotal reports, by proactive Sky Watch events, by passive detection with UFO-Sense™ boxes, and by area text alerts when events are detected or witnessed. Today, almost everyone has a camera in their pocket, so we're out to get multi-camera evidence for much-improved data and credibility for lower altitude events, and strong credible evidence for No-Fly Zone events when they happen. We invite interested individuals to join our scientifically based efforts towards creating a real-time UFO Alert Network. Check out UFO-Track.com to be notified as our projects unfold.

We invite you to visit UFO-Track.com to learn more about our proactive approach to achieving real disclosure and how you can actively participate in this critical scientific pursuit. We're just getting started with several related projects, and everyone is welcome to help with this cause!